Adaptability /
Adaptive capacity

An approach that emphasises learning, experimentation, emergence, context dependency, and the management of feedbacks and action in the face of uncertainty. Adaptive capacity is the extent to which a social-ecological system can adjust its responses.

Anthropocene

The geological epoch we currently live in, dating from the commencement of significant human impact on the earth’s geology and eco-systems from anthropogenic climate change. The Anthropocene is most commonly proposed to have started around 1950 and succeeds the Holocene, the geological epoch that followed the last ice age (approximately 12 000 years ago) which was characterised by a stable climate and favourable conditions for the development of modern human societies. More commonly, however, it refers to the pervasive impacts of people on ecosystems on the planet, across scales from local to global.

Anticipation

Covers all efforts to “know the future”. Systems of anticipation are incorporated in all phenomena, conscious or unconscious, physical or ideational; from a tree that loses its leaves in the autumn through to human planning. The term anticipation is used as a ‘cover’ term to describe different ways of ‘using the future, for example to make sense of, or decisions in, the present’.

The concept has its origins in biology; it encompasses thinking ahead and incorporating unavoidable, unexpected events into [a] system, so, the responses from the system are both in accordance with long-term plans and responses to unforeseen circumstances. It is also the process by which social-ecological systems (SES) learns, combines experiences and knowledge, and adjusts to changing external drivers and internal processes.

Anticipatory assumptions

The elements that make up the different frames that people use when consciously imagining the future.

Back-casting

The process of working backwards from the definition of a possible future, in order to determine what needs to happen to make this future unfold and connect to the present.

A facilitation method designed to help translate scenarios to strategies. It usually begins with a visioning process, where participants are encouraged to describe elements of a future scenario. Working backwards from that future scenario to the present day, back-casting involves fleshing out the steps needed to arrive at the scenario.

Black Swan

A rare, large-impact, hard-to-predict and discontinuous event beyond the realm of normal expectations. Taking reference from how people believed that all swans were white up to the discovery of black swans in Australia, “Black Swans” illustrate the fragility of human knowledge, and the weakness of a purely empirical approach to preparing for the future.

As the world becomes more complex and volatile, our tendency to be surprised by Black Swans will increase, because it will become progressively harder to pick up weak signals and identify outliers ahead of time. The human tendency is also to look for explanations for Black Swans after they have occurred; while comforting in the short term, this tendency to seek coherence in hindsight might blind us to future threats.

Causal layered analysis

A four-level analysis examining the litany (‘headlines’), systems, worldviews and myths/metaphors associated with an issue. It is used to identify different perspectives about the future and is good for ‘surfacing’ underlying, sometimes sensitive issues. Changing the deepest levels of myths/metaphors about an issue is one way of developing preferred futures.

Collective intelligence

An enhanced capacity to solve problems, created when people work together through the mobilisation of a wider range of data, ideas, and insights.

Complexity

A phenomenon involving multiple components in a dense network of interactions or relationships, where cause-effect relationships are not clear, stable or predictably repeatable.

Complex systems are often self-organising; they exhibit new patterns and behaviours that cannot be predicted beforehand or by examining the component parts of the system, but which can only be discerned and understood after the fact and usually cannot be replicated. The occurrence of these new patterns and behaviours is known as emergence.

Complex systems are also characterised by non-linearity, i.e., where changes are random and/or discontinuous, and do not follow a gradual and orderly pattern. As a result, cause-effect relations between the various components are difficult to establish in a complex system.

Complex adaptive systems (CAS)

Complex adaptive systems comprise a number of relationally constituted phenomena that interact in adaptive and non-linear ways to form emergent patterns of behaviour. Complex adaptive systems are a special instance of complex systems as they extend the definition of traditional systems theory by recognising that CAS contain adaptive components and capacities.

Drivers, Driving forces

Factors causing change, affecting or shaping the future. A distinction is typically made between driving forces that are “predetermined” and those that are “critical uncertainties”.

“Predetermined” driving forces are likely to remain stable and predictable. For example, because demographics take a long time to shift, China’s ageing population is likely to be a predetermined element across multiple possible development trajectories.

“Critical uncertainties” are driving forces for which a range of plausible future trajectories exists.

Experiential futures

Refers to a set of approaches to make alternative futures present and ‘feel’ real, i.e. the aim is to get people to experience the future. It is essentially a future brought to life materially or performatively, or both. It is all about engaging with futures using design (often prototyping), performance, film and materiality – objects and things – as well as media and modalities that have not traditionally been used.

Extrapolation

Application of a method or conclusion to a new situation assuming that existing trends will continue or similar methods will be applicable.

Forecast

A process for making justified statements on future events, based on quantitative analysis and modelling. Quantitative analysis and modelling can be combined with sensitivity analysis to establish a range of possible trajectories. Forecasts are entirely extrapolative in nature.

Foresight

The capacity to think strategically about the future - a systematic, participatory and multi-disciplinary approach to explore mid- to long-term futures and drivers of change.

Strategic foresight is an organised and systematic process to engage with uncertainty regarding the future. According to Richard Slaughter: “The ability to create and sustain a variety of high-quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways; for example, to detect adverse conditions, guide policy, shape strategy; to explore new markets, products and service”.

Futures studies

An academic discipline about alternative futures which seeks to understand the underlying structures that gives rise to future events, trends or behaviour. Also known as Futures research.

Futures literacy

The capacity to know how to imagine the future, and why it is necessary. Futures literacy enables us to become aware of the sources of our hopes and fears, and improves our ability to harness the power of images of the future, to enable us to appreciate the diversity of the world around us more fully and the choices we make.

The human capability that consists of the ability to use anticipation for different ends, in different ways and in different contexts. People become more futures literate as they gain a better understanding of the diversity of anticipatory assumptions (see above).

A capability that offers insights on how we approach unforeseeable challenges by using the future to innovate in the present.

Futures wheels

A group brainstorming method that explores and maps multiple levels of consequences of trends, events, emerging issues and/or future possible decisions. It is a graphic visualisation of direct and indirect, positive and negative future consequences of a particular change or development.

Gaming / ‘Gamification’ /Serious games

Simulates real-world situations and predicaments and engages participants by means of, often goal-directed, play. It includes foresight card decks, board games, immersive role-playing experiences, futures labs and various types of online games such as Foresight Engine. An important rationale for the use of gaming methods in futures research is that active learning methods are often most effective.

Horizon scanning

The systematic process of looking for early warning signs of change in the policy and strategy environment by examining potential threats, opportunities and developments.

Focuses on identifying new and emerging issues, typically called ‘weak signals’, as well as existing trends. It can also serve as a future oriented sense-making exercise. Horizon scanning entails a systematic information / intelligence gathering and analysing activity.

Resilience

Classical definitions of resilience refer to the amount of change a system can undergo and still retain its essential structures, functions and feedbacks, as well as the capacity of the system for self-organisation, adaptation and learning. More recently, resilience has been defined as the capacity of a social-ecological system to persist in the face of disturbance and change, while continuing to adapt and develop along a pathway or transform and navigate new pathways in order to sustain human well-being. Increasingly, resilience thinking takes into account and integrates notions of governance systems, ecosystem services and human well-being, adaptive capacity and transformation. In short; resilience is not just about the ability to withstand, and/or bounce back from shock, but the capacity to innovate, change and transform faster than the conditions of change.

Risk

The effect of uncertainty on objectives. Risks can be distinguished in different ways: A risk event is an acute and discrete occurrence, whereas a risk issue is a development or trend that evolves over time. For example, extreme cold weather in North America caused by the unexpected breakdown of the polar vortex is an example of a discrete risk event, while shifts in weather patterns due to climate change constitute a risk issue.

Risk management

The systematic application of management policies, procedures and practices to the activities of communicating, consulting, establishing the context, and identifying, analysing treating, monitoring and reviewing risk.

Road-mapping

A ‘vision-into-action’ technique which is often used for technology planning to help turn ideas into products or services. It maps potential pathways, with timelines and actions, from the present to the preferred future to help make it possible to reach that future.

Scenario planning

A futures methodology that uses stories which describe alternative ways the external environment might develop in the future for medium to long-term strategic planning.

Sense-making

How we gather information and interpret it along with our experiences to understand our world, make decisions, and take action.

The process of clarifying and articulating an organisation’s understanding of complex situations in order to build situational awareness and shared understanding within the organisation.

Social-ecological systems (SES)

Complex adaptive systems co-constituted by intertwined social and ecological agents and processes.

Systems thinking

A holistic approach to analysis that focuses on the way that a system*’s constituent parts interrelate and how systems work over time and within the context of larger systems.

* A system is a set of interconnected elements that is coherently organised in a pattern or structure.

System thinking is a fundamental perspective (or paradigm) of Futures Studies; it is the lens through which futures thinkers view the world.

Three horizons framework

A conceptual model to aid people’s thinking about current assumptions, emerging changes and possible and desired futures. It is a graphical approach developed to explore the change in importance of issues over time and connect the future to the present.

It is an adaptable tool that is often used as an intuitive, accessible introduction to futures thinking and to make sense of emerging changes. At its most basic it is a systems model about the way things change over time. It is particularly good for working with complexity, developing future consciousness and recognising transformative change, while exploring how to manage transitions.

Transformation

Refers to a fundamental change in an SES, generally towards a more sustainable or preferred outcome. It can involve systemic dynamics similar to a regime shift, but typically focuses on positive shifts, often involving radical changes in underlying worldviews, values and governance systems.

Transition

A shift of a system from one state to another.

Trend

An emerging pattern of events that suggest change. A driver is a current or emerging trend that may have an impact on development of the policy or strategy area of interest.

A megatrend is a direction of development over time that is large or global in scale which will significantly affect the future.

Trend impact analysis

Focuses on the potential impacts and implications of trends and megatrends on the topic or issue under consideration. Megatrends are the great forces in societal and natural development that are likely to affect the future in all areas over the next 10–15 years. A framework measuring likelihood, scale and speed of arrival is often used.

Can range from highly sophisticated exercises, e.g. the government of Singapore and World Economic Forum’s risk mapping, to brainstorming sessions about issues that are very difficult to measure and track, such as the growth in the popularity of veganism.

Uncertainty

A state of having limited knowledge about the future. Exists when parties to a decision do not know, or cannot agree on, the system model that relates action to consequences - predictions are often wrong, and relying on them can prove costly and dangerous.

Visioning

Visioning is any participatory activity or exercise designed to come up with compelling visions/narratives/images of preferred, often transformative, futures. These preferred futures are always normative as opposed to possible or plausible futures generated by scenarios. The aim is to inspire, engage and enable people to act towards creating a preferred future.

Wicked problem

A problem which has no simple solution because the precise nature of the problem cannot readily be defined. Wicked problems are commonly found within complex environments, where constantly evolving interdependencies make it difficult to define problems precisely.

There is not one clear solution, parts and dynamics are not well understood, outcomes are highly unpredictable and uncertain, and it has multiple levels and scales.

Weak signal

An early indication of a potentially important new event or emerging phenomenon that could become an emerging pattern, a major driver or the source of a new trend.